As the departure day of Donald Trump from the White House nears, Arab countries seem to be caught in a battle royal to recognize Israel. UAE was the first one to blaze a trail. Bahrain, Sudan and Oman have followed suit. Israeli Prime Minister has announced a visit to Bahrain in the coming days.
After the fall of Trump in the recent elections, this region sees dark clouds gathering on its horizons. It will be an uphill task for President-Elect, Joe Biden to weather the storm.
With the exit of Trump, Iran has heaved a sigh of relief because President Trump withdrew from the peace deal inked by Iran and America during previous Democratic rule. The withdrawal of Trump from the deal saw mounting pressure on Iran, as Trump’s foreign policy was hostile to Iran.
Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner and Saudi Prince, Muhammad Bin Salman have been well-coordinated with each other. Trump’s Middle East deal, the biggest of the century, coaxed Arab states to recognize Israel in quick succession.
How will Joe Biden, in the post-Trump period, deal with this conundrum? What will be his foreign policy? Will he stand by Israel or back up Arabs? Will he lend eager ears to Iran or plead for KSA’s case? Will Yemen war be called off or continue?
The departing Trump has left Joe Biden in a quandary, a long row to hoe, no less irksome than a can of worms. On one hand, Iran is revamping Uranium enrichment while on the other hand; Israel is targeting Iran-backed militia in Syria. This year, Israel, so far has carried out more than thirty aerial attacks, eliminating hundreds of Iranian fighters. Iran-Israel conflict may anytime lead to armed confrontation.
America is withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. Its pullout from Iraq is also about to conclude with only a few thousand troops left there. They are ready to leave Iraq whose parliament has passed a resolution to certify US pullout. Moreover, now ISIS is no longer as dreadful as it used to be.
These factors may goad Joe Biden to restructure US policy for the region. One thing is sure that Joe Biden’s foreign policy will be different from that of Trump. Donald Trump abandoned the Iran Deal that was landmark accord of Obama Administration. Now it seems to be on the cards. Democratic administration under Joe Biden’s leadership will restore the deal or at least try to work on it to deescalate tension between Iran and Israel, threatening to enflame the region.
Secondly, Trump didn’t impart NATO, an American willing hand in its wars, the importance which it used to have in the past. Trump went so far to say that America would cut down NATO’s military assistance and now NATO would suffice its own matters. On the contrary, Joe Biden declares NATO an important ally of America. It is believed that after taking oath as president, Joe Biden will see NATO issue on priority bases.
Joe Biden, during his election campaign, has criticized the agreement between Trump Administration and Taliban, saying that it was inked in an indiscreet hurry. Let’s see how he deals with Afghanistan and Taliban dilemma. Joe Biden intends to nominate Antony Blinken as Secretary of State, assisted by Linda Thomas-Greenfield and Jake Sullivan. This is the team which has worked with Joe Biden and Obama during the last two decades. Jake Sullivan was important figure in the US-Iran deal of 2015. Linda Thomas-Greenfield is authority on African affairs.
This troika is well-versed in the White House proceedings. That’s why; it is being said that now the US Foreign Policy will be redressed on the pre-Trump lines. The real test of Joe Biden’s foreign policy team will be in the land of the Middle East where Iran and Israel are at daggers drawn while Arab states are following an ancient proverb: The enemy of my enemy is my friend. They are queued up to make amends with Israel. Now it is to be seen how Joe Biden’s experienced team brings Iran on dialogue table. Here their mettles will be tested.
Iran has clarified that Joe or Trump, US Presidential elections will have no effect on its policies. During Trump administration, General Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was assassinated in US drone attack. In this backdrop, the first condition of Iran would be to lift the sanctions imposed by Trump administration. These sanctions have deteriorated Iranian economy. In this situation, if America lifts sanctions from Iran, only then the heat of the region will decrease. If not, there are many things to complicate the matter and open the floodgates of hell.
